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Two years since COP28 tripling pledge, global 2030 renewable targets up by just 2%

Stuart Mitchell

A new analysis by global energy think tank Ember reveals that, two years after the COP28 agreement to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, national targets have barely made progress — with the total global ambition increasing by just 2% since the agreement. This gap between global ambition and national planning risks undermining not only climate progress but also energy security and economic resilience of countries.

National renewable energy targets collectively now add up to 7.4 terawatts (TW) for 2030 — just over double the 3.4 TW installed in 2022. This still falls significantly short of the 11 TW needed to meet the tripling goal agreed at COP28. The gap to tripling remains stubbornly wide at 3.7 TW, meaning countries are still only aiming for a doubling of capacity by the end of this decade.

22 countries have revised their targets since COP28 and the majority of them are in the European Union. Outside the EU, only seven countries have made updates. The slow pace of target revision highlights how most national planning processes are continuing on routine cycles, largely unaffected by global commitments.

Among the top 20 electricity producers, national ambition remains largely unchanged.

The US has no national 2030 renewables target, and with the One Big Beautiful Bill becoming an Act and rolling back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the country is not expected to set targets in the near future.

India’s target of 500 GW remains unchanged but is already aligned with the tripling goal. Russia does not have a 2030 renewable energy target and is not expected to announce one.

China is currently finalising its 15th Five-Year Plan for Energy, which is expected to include a 2030 renewable energy target — though it’s unclear if it will appear in this plan, the NDC, or both. South Africa is also in the process of updating its Integrated Resource Plan, which may bring an update to its 2030 target.

The purpose of a national renewables target is less-so to force more renewables to be built, but rather to make sure they are built smarter. It can help the government plan for the best place to build renewables and plan for grid and flexibility to integrate the renewables, and also to help companies invest in supply chains, making for a cheaper and more secure electricity system.
Dr. Katye Altieri, ‍Global Electricity Analyst , Ember

The analysis comes at a pivotal moment, as countries prepare for COP30. While some countries may still be in the process of updating their targets, the opportunity for impactful near-term action is narrowing rapidly. Without immediate and ambitious revisions, and robust implementation, the world risks missing the 2030 milestone to triple renewable energy capacity. Aligning national ambition with the global tripling pledge can help countries drive investment, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and fast-track progress toward secure, affordable, and clean energy systems for all.

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